Important dates:
(blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:
(purple lines) denoting July 4 holiday
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11 2021 | 12063 | 54616 | 437 | 112 | 237 | 309 |
| August 12 2021 | 12098 | 54710 | 441 | 112 | 272 | 327 |
| August 13 2021 | 12136 | 54824 | 441 | 112 | 289 | 344 |
| August 14 2021 | 12170 | 54897 | 442 | 112 | 305 | 367 |
| August 15 2021 | 12191 | 54963 | 442 | 112 | 290 | 365 |
| August 16 2021 | 12191 | 54998 | 442 | 112 | 247 | 365 |
| August 17 2021 | 12212 | 55070 | 443 | 112 | 240 | 365 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.0 | 10% | 24 | 0.21% | 39 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 3.3 | 10.8% | 26 | 0.19% | 36 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 4.4 | 15.8% | 38 | 0.18% | 53 | 0.25% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 5.1 | 17.9% | 43 | 0.32% | 70 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 4.3 | 16.2% | 39 | 0.37% | 56 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.1 | 8.8% | 21 | 0.17% | 38 | 0.3% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.1 | 8.8% | 21 | 0.18% | 33 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 0 | 3.3 | 11.7% | 28 | 0.27% | 40 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 21 | 27.7 | 100% | 240 | 0.23% | 365 | 0.35% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11 2021 | 7800 | 32070 | 320 | 96 | 196 | 231 |
| August 12 2021 | 7822 | 32110 | 322 | 96 | 186 | 244 |
| August 13 2021 | 7856 | 32152 | 322 | 96 | 203 | 267 |
| August 14 2021 | 7872 | 32202 | 323 | 96 | 204 | 268 |
| August 15 2021 | 7876 | 32241 | 323 | 96 | 186 | 272 |
| August 16 2021 | 7903 | 32257 | 323 | 96 | 197 | 267 |
| August 17 2021 | 7908 | 32304 | 329 | 97 | 180 | 255 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.1 | 9.4% | 17 | 0.22% | 24 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 2.0 | 10% | 18 | 0.21% | 28 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | -1 | 3.0 | 15.6% | 28 | 0.39% | 43 | 0.6% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 3.9 | 20% | 36 | 0.43% | 49 | 0.58% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.4 | 11.7% | 21 | 0.27% | 25 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.7 | 11.1% | 20 | 0.21% | 28 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.6 | 10.6% | 19 | 0.23% | 35 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.0 | 11.7% | 21 | 0.3% | 23 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 5 | 19.7 | 100% | 180 | 0.28% | 255 | 0.39% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11 2021 | 5984 | 21554 | 292 | 85 | 59 | 74 |
| August 12 2021 | 5993 | 21578 | 293 | 85 | 62 | 79 |
| August 13 2021 | 6014 | 21612 | 293 | 85 | 81 | 95 |
| August 14 2021 | 6020 | 21633 | 293 | 85 | 79 | 99 |
| August 15 2021 | 6036 | 21654 | 293 | 85 | 93 | 111 |
| August 16 2021 | 6043 | 21675 | 294 | 85 | 92 | 112 |
| August 17 2021 | 6051 | 21691 | 294 | 85 | 94 | 118 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.2% | 3 | 0.06% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.3 | 14.9% | 14 | 0.26% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 1.7 | 11.7% | 11 | 0.24% | 17 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.3 | 20.2% | 19 | 0.35% | 29 | 0.53% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.9 | 9.6% | 9 | 0.18% | 9 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.9 | 16% | 15 | 0.22% | 16 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.3 | 12.8% | 12 | 0.19% | 15 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.6 | 11.7% | 11 | 0.17% | 14 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 8 | 11.1 | 100% | 94 | 0.21% | 118 | 0.26% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11 2021 | 13042 | 61943 | 484 | 91 | 170 | 226 |
| August 12 2021 | 13065 | 62055 | 487 | 91 | 186 | 238 |
| August 13 2021 | 13104 | 62181 | 488 | 91 | 207 | 261 |
| August 14 2021 | 13128 | 62255 | 489 | 91 | 219 | 266 |
| August 15 2021 | 13138 | 62310 | 489 | 91 | 219 | 266 |
| August 16 2021 | 13153 | 62388 | 489 | 91 | 207 | 274 |
| August 17 2021 | 13177 | 62453 | 493 | 91 | 218 | 280 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.6 | 6% | 13 | 0.11% | 17 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 7.3% | 16 | 0.1% | 22 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 4.7 | 19.7% | 43 | 0.2% | 48 | 0.23% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.4 | 14.2% | 31 | 0.23% | 44 | 0.32% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.7 | 15.6% | 34 | 0.25% | 51 | 0.38% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.1 | 15.1% | 33 | 0.23% | 41 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.1 | 8.3% | 18 | 0.13% | 23 | 0.16% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.0 | 13.8% | 30 | 0.23% | 34 | 0.26% |
| All ages | 24 | 23.7 | 100% | 218 | 0.18% | 280 | 0.24% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11 2021 | 46995 | 374420 | 1688 | 317 | 830 | 1143 |
| August 12 2021 | 47095 | 374957 | 1693 | 317 | 875 | 1157 |
| August 13 2021 | 47252 | 375471 | 1694 | 318 | 939 | 1234 |
| August 14 2021 | 47336 | 376014 | 1697 | 318 | 946 | 1238 |
| August 15 2021 | 47409 | 376437 | 1700 | 318 | 893 | 1244 |
| August 16 2021 | 47505 | 376721 | 1705 | 318 | 892 | 1285 |
| August 17 2021 | 47583 | 376914 | 1705 | 318 | 865 | 1270 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 11.3 | 11.4% | 99 | 0.16% | 133 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 11.3 | 11.9% | 103 | 0.14% | 152 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 22.4 | 24.4% | 211 | 0.2% | 313 | 0.3% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 17.1 | 18.2% | 157 | 0.21% | 217 | 0.28% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 11.7 | 11.9% | 103 | 0.16% | 167 | 0.25% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 9.6 | 10.1% | 87 | 0.13% | 137 | 0.21% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4% | 55 | 0.1% | 77 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 5 | 5.3 | 5.8% | 50 | 0.1% | 74 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 78 | 94.9 | 100% | 865 | 0.16% | 1270 | 0.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11 2021 | 633133 | 3070870 | 34029 | 7462 | 10709 | 14093 |
| August 12 2021 | 634530 | 3075610 | 34123 | 7466 | 11663 | 14609 |
| August 13 2021 | 636344 | 3080443 | 34216 | 7471 | 12121 | 15396 |
| August 14 2021 | 637339 | 3084289 | 34294 | 7471 | 12003 | 15540 |
| August 15 2021 | 637958 | 3087711 | 34323 | 7471 | 11074 | 15534 |
| August 16 2021 | 638571 | 3090295 | 34362 | 7471 | 10563 | 15704 |
| August 17 2021 | 640248 | 3093068 | 34506 | 7483 | 11199 | 16025 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 178 | 111.6 | 9.2% | 1029 | 0.16% | 1479 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 200 | 147.4 | 12.2% | 1362 | 0.18% | 1961 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 238 | 215.6 | 18.1% | 2025 | 0.27% | 2978 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 261 | 209.1 | 17.1% | 1916 | 0.25% | 2769 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 211 | 173.1 | 14.4% | 1609 | 0.23% | 2227 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 222 | 145.4 | 12% | 1339 | 0.16% | 1954 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 199 | 113.6 | 9.1% | 1017 | 0.13% | 1421 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 168 | 98.1 | 8.1% | 902 | 0.14% | 1236 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 1677 | 1214.0 | 100% | 11199 | 0.19% | 16025 | 0.28% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.9 | 26.5 | 25.3 | 27.7 | 21.7 | 25.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39.4 | 19.7 | 16.7 | 33% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.1 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 33.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.7 | 13.3 | 22.6 | 23.7 | 14.7 | 21.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.2 | 21.4 | 30.1 | 94.9 | 85 | 18% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.5 | 25.9 | 39.3 | 1214 | 1008.6 | 24.2% |
Important Resources:
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-09-07 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6855"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges